Friday, January 27, 2023

Reaching FRAHM Synergy

Here are some basics you should know regarding how we operate in the FX arena. The FRAHM method is not just TA but also includes real-time PA and Fibonacci in concert trading.

London and New York sessions are the primary timeframes for the group.

No fees or dues. No proprietary software is used. 

No published Forex Signals of any kind. Few if any exotic pairs, mostly just the primary ones: EU, UC, UJ, GU and AU.  We talk about commodities like Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil and the G20+ calendar indicators. This includes BIS, BDI and more.

There are no competitions or set goals other than asset preservation and profitable trading. (Basic rules of risk management.) 

Every member is independent of the group. English is the groups language of choice but not required.  whether you trade at the micro-lot level or full lot level, everyone can benefit from group conversation. 

All communications as a group are via Google Workspace which includes Chat, Meet and Gmail.  As well as email to text where supported.

You'll need to request to speak someone on the phone for more information by texting your Name and Number (including country code and any needed suffix) to 1.915.373.0118 and you'll get a call back within a reasonable period of time. There is no obligation of any kind.

My name is Rod and I can see three States and two Countries from my front porch. Let's trade!

Thursday, January 22, 2015

The pulse of the FX market (TIC) and (PA)

TIC as one of the inputs for a go-no-go trade. (GNG)

Internal or external that is the question....

Let me preface by saying that there are two (2) types of data source available to you in real-time from your booker/broker.

1. Internal data is from customer actions within the bookers systems.*

2. External data comes from liquidity providers and the market itself.

Note: I do not use internal data for ANY real-time trading decisions.

Remember there's VERY little external information available to the trader from a booker/broker.  Price Action (PA) and TIC and that rounds out the short list!  
So let's look at TIC and how I use it to assist in opening and closing a trade. My history with TIC goes back a while as it was used with metals in the early days of my trading.  My goal is to use common external data as it's available from 99% of bookers/brokers for the EUR/USD pair to trade with.

I've developed a checklist with thresholds for various indicators and price actions, patterns and TIC levels for trading the EUR/USD. I often think of TIC like a blood pressure indicator of what's going on under the hood.  PA does not necessarily go hand in hand with TIC, thus the benefit of the indicator. So if the London morning lift off is imminent one should see a pattern in TIC to assist you in making a GNG decision.  The reverse is true in that the trade is coming to the end of its move then tic TIC pattern should again show its colors to close. 

My Checklist is a proprietary mish mash of things, most of which are not technical or scientific in nature. But rather a distilled set of criteria to Go-No-Go the trade. (No checklist data is derived from proprietary data sources.)

*FX internal data indicators such as Trade Volume and Short and Long Volume etc. is nothing more than a distraction for the GNG process. I have yet to find value in these home grown indicators.

In summary I find TIC to be very helpful in the GNG formula for session trading. 

You can find more here: @BuggyPilot

Saturday, May 31, 2014

The Trade and the Art of Stepping in and Out

First let me preface by saying that risk management (the trade) is the key element in a successful FX trader. In other words, you can have many winning trades but no profits if the risk is not managed in a systematic way. Every trader has his or her own methodologies in their Trade Management (TM). I won't go into leverage use, slippage, spreads or stops to manage risk as this is my method explained.  Assumptions are the EUR/USD pair and times are NY reference and a five minute chart.

The London 4 A.M. ramp opens the trade (OCO) with a token lot size and I get notified as most of the time during the early morning hours I like to sleep as do most humans. (I'm in the Mountain Time Zone) 

I'll then use my checklist to see if the open trade is a go or not and if it's a go I'll deepen the trade (add lots). What now, you ask?

Look to set my exit points on support and resistance lines (I use S&R and confluence from price action) and if price blows through the first line I take the bulk of the trade off at the next line or resting point. Then I look to exit more at the next line or resting point.  Once the trade is going I move my stop into the money and set limit exits or manage the exits manually. On manual exits I often go down to the 1 minute chart and look for the resting point close to S&R and or confluence from previous price action.

Okay, I can hear you screaming!  Why do you leave so much on the table trading like this. Once the bulk of the trade is taken off, the rest can go to my stop and still book pips.

The bulk exit ratio is about 60-80% and the rest is stepped, limit or stopped out.   Trailing stops are often used for automatic exits as I don't let trading consume me.

Yes, OCO's do open the trade in the wrong direction but my flub ratio is 1 in 20 as you get to know the pair a little better you know where to place the orders.

I'll build on this and talk about Tick and TM (Go or No Go) and also T1 and T2 exits points. Tick is up next. 

More can be found here @BuggyPilot 


Saturday, May 17, 2014

Why I day-trade the Euro / US Dollar almost exclusively

Of the six leading currency pairs traded the EUR/USD has many traits that make it the ideal pair to trade for some of the following reasons.

The pair is king in many areas that are advantageous to the retail trader, like liquidity that's available right out of the gate on opening for the week.

The ability to trade a pair that is almost predictable in pattern trading is a trait that pads the bottom line and allows for more time to create setups that pay off by the use of OCO orders (One Cancels the Other) for unattended trade opening. USA traders can't straddle a trade by law.

In trading currencies the trader has lagging indicators and not much else to go on and only has control over Entry, Depth and Exit, of the trade. The EUR/USD has generally enough daily price (pip) range  to make it a candidate for Deep trades with less risk than with other pairs that don't have the range or volatility as some describe it.  

What this means in general is that with semi-predictable price behavior one can manage a trade with Entry, Depth and Exit strategies that are profitable and have capital preservation characteristics should price turn on the trade.

I'm not saying not to trade other pairs of currency but rather trade what you feel comfortable trading for less stress equals more booked pips.

The learning curve for FX trading is steep and not for everyone, but learning the EUR/USD eccentric behavior can be rewarding be it a micro lot or a deep standard multi-lot trade.

In closing I want to stress that this is not all there is to trading the EUR/USD but some fundamental reasons I trade the pair.

Feel free to contact me for more on my FRAHM methodology of trading the FX market.  Long live the Golden Sequence and Holistic Trading Methods. 

An instructor drilled into his students to be successful you need to follow the philosophy of "Stops are in, Emotions are Out" and you'll do well.

Please don't ask about the gap in posting, okay!

Next post I'll talk about managing the open trade the way I do it.

-Rod  My phone number can be found here: @BuggyPilot  

Monday, July 26, 2010

What to do in Orogrande, NM, Population 65

First off, stop at the Outpost for all your refreshing drinks and munching supplies!
Let me tell you, there's no place like it in Orogrande as this is it, the one and only one stop shop for all your needs.  Be it a tale of local happenings or just a hot cup of Java or ice cold drink, this is the place.

A day in Orogrande can be full of history and tales of times gone by and things are not as austere  as they seem on the surface.  I was invited for a little prospecting with my metal detectors and a trip up to the Nannie Beaird mine that has so much history that is just minutes away in Jarilla Mountians just to the North West. 

We first went behind the U.S. Post Office with our detectors and found this water meter in the sand from when the area was a tent city during the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) days.  Credit goes to James for the find, yes, a very nice find indeed!

I've sent an email to the Niagara Meters Co. as it's called now and hope to post a response from them soon.

There was also an abundance of nails and tin cans  from the tent city that used to occupy the land where the meter is located.  Most of the meters have been looted that were made of brass for the salvage value.  Also most of the above ground steel pipe has been salvaged at one time or another.  This meter is made of cast iron.  And was about 6 inches deep in the sand.

Around mid Morning we had enough of the wet humid conditions (it rained the day before) and decided to go up to the famous Nannie Beaird Mine  and see what remains of this famous mine just around the mountain from historic mining town of Brice.  In 2001 the mine shafts were secured with covers so that the bats can fly in and out but keep folks out as the last person to die in the Jarilla's by falling down a mine shaft was as recenty as in 2000.

There's a a lot of tin (steel) cans at the Nannie Beaird mine site that were used in a catalytic leaching process to extract copper from the ore and as these photos show the cans still occupy the processing facility to this day!

Here's a peek through a crack in the wall of the office area now full of tin cans.

Just outside of the offices there's a ton of tin cans that have been left to fall victim to rust and it gets so hot from the Sun that not even a weed will grow.

Lunch was approaching so we went back down the mountain to Orogrande and took up the offer to have Brats and Fixn's at the old CCC school house that now serves as a Community Center for those living in Orogrande.  Last time that I was in the Jarilla Mountians was in 1963 with my father who was prospecting on behalf of my Grand Dad (who was always looking for that fortune) but in reality I think that it was the comradeship of the folks prospecting and a cool brew that kept him coming back for more of the Orogrande / Jarilla mining experience.

And that's what we did in Orogrande on the 4th of July 2010!